The Economist reports scientific proof that severe weather is going to rise exponentially

The cautious skeptics at the Economist Newspaper continue to move their general position away from default conservative approaches. Last week the publication reported that “scientists are now able to say that climate change increases the risk of a particular weather pattern by a measurable amount and, in some cases, that a particular episode is almost impossible to imagine without global warming.” Green blog re economist pic It quotes credible scientists at Oxford University, University of Melbourne, the Natioanal Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in the USA and the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. It notes that it is still difficult to connect individual weather events to climate change, but the science is growing quickly linking man-made climate change to patterns of dramatically increasing severe weather occurrances. The Economist: “In an attempt to give the overall picture, a new study in Nature Climate Change by Erich Fischer and Reto Knutti, both of the Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich, moved away from individual events to consider heatwaves and rain storms in general. They took all the heat and precipitation extremes between 1901 and 2005, defining extremes as events likely to occur once every 1,000 days. By running the climate models with and without climate change, they found that 0.85°C of warming (the rise since the industrial era began) has made such heat extremes four or five times more likely, roughly the same as in the Australian study. The authors attribute 75% of the heat extremes, and 18% of the precipitation extremes, to observed global warming. Worryingly, the risk of an extreme event seems to rise exponentially as mean temperatures creep up. The probability of a heat extreme is twice as great at 2°C of warming than at 1.5°C…That is a useful addition to climate science. People are routinely told about—and routinely ignore—the bad things they are doing to the climate. The attribution studies show that the climate is doing bad things back.”

It’s important when cautious, skeptical and credible publications like the Economist acknowledge truths that they know are especially bad news for carbon-based players in the global economy. The worm is definitely turning. Here’s the link: The Economist


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